A key indicator of corporate efficiency may now be better than at any time since the turn of the millennium. The net working capital cycle - a crucial measure that tracks the time a company takes to convert current assets like inventory into sales and then collect the money from customers - has seen remarkable improvement. According to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the average company needed nearly 90 days to complete this cycle in 1999-2000.
Despite the uncertainties created by rising bond yields and oil prices, fund managers have been proactively deploying fresh flows into the equity market. The cash available with equity fund managers, which has remained lower at around 5 per cent in the past few months, hit a 16-month low of 4.8 per cent in September, shows a Motilal Oswal Financial Services report. Cash holdings in equity schemes had topped 6 per cent in February amid subdued equity market sentiment.
In September, net equity inflows stood at Rs 6,609 crore, compared to Rs 9,152 crore in the previous month. In the last four months, this is the lowest net inflow tally seen by the equity category.
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Quarterly earnings of corporates, trading activity of foreign investors and inflation data are the key factors that are expected to drive the momentum in the equity markets this week, analysts said.
Investors were stuck in old schemes though they were suspended because of tax implications.
Mutual fund houses have been on an equity buying spree in the past three months as they have invested a net amount of Rs 55,000 crore in them between January and March 2023. The number is more than double the amount deployed in the preceding three months (October to December), signalling improved valuations and favourable economic indicators. The valuations, which had peaked in October 2021, returned to its long-term average in March 2023.
Price correction over post-election peaks could throw disinvestment calculations awry.
Indian companies are generating more cash than ever. The net cash flow from listed firms' operations hit a new high of Rs 11.1 trillion in financial year 2023-24 (FY24), crossing the Rs 10-trillion mark for the first time, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data going back to 1990-91. The FY24 figure represents a 19.3 per cent jump over the previous year, even as quite a few companies are yet to release their numbers.
India's financial sector is dominated by large government-owned and private-sector banks.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
The stocks are largely from sectors such as chemicals, finance and cement, which struggled earlier but the worse seems to be behind them.
Swift gains on Dalal Street this year have also led to a sharp surge in shares of equity market intermediaries like depositories, exchanges, and registrar and transfer Agents (RTAs). The stock prices of BSE, CDSL, CAMS, and KFin Technologies are up 24-283 per cent so far in 2023 when compared to a 9 per cent rise in the benchmark Nifty index. With the market buoyancy expected to keep up the pace, analysts believe these stocks are a good long-term bet despite the sharp rally, which can trigger an intermittent correction.
India's biggest non-bank finance company, Bajaj Finance (BAF), is set to raise capital after a gap of four years. On October 5, the board of directors will meet to approve the fund raise by way of preferential issue and/or qualified institutional placement (QIP) subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The move, analysts said, comes ahead of expectations, and could be in the wake of simmering competition in the consumer lending space, especially with the launch of Jio Financial Services (Jio Fin). "While we still do not have finer details on the game-plan of Jio Financial, it has plans to initially foray into consumer and merchant lending.
Over 85 per cent of SIP AUM, or Rs 5.8 trillion, is in equity schemes, compared to just Rs 6,100 crore in debt.
The steady inflows from systematic investment plans (SIPs) into mutual funds (MFs), coupled with outflows from debt schemes, has propelled the share of SIPs in the total assets being managed by the industry to a new high of 17.1 per cent in February. SIPs are used predominantly by retail investors. Nearly seven of every 10 SIP accounts are in equity-oriented active MF schemes.
'Continue with your SIPs to get the benefit of lower average prices in this challenging market environment.'
Even as the returns of mutual fund (MF) schemes have improved considerably in the past three months, addition of new investors has remained in the slow lane for the MF industry. According to industry data, during the first six months of CY 2023, MFs onboarded only 1.6 million new unique investors, in stark contrast to the 4.7 million investors added during the same period last CY and the 2.4 million in 2021. It is noteworthy, however, that the current additions for this year have doubled in comparison to the figure of 800,000 seen in 2020.
Analysts believe that investors should look at stocks that hit 52-week lows only if they have a dividend paying track record, are debt-free and have sound fundamentals.
While the market may remain volatile this year, analysts expect equities to deliver positive returns by outperforming inflation and government bonds, supported by the fiscal stimulus in the US.
For over a decade, HDFC Bank consistently outperformed industry growth rates in both deposits and advances, maintaining impeccable asset quality. Amid a landscape where other banks struggled with soaring non-performing assets (NPAs), HDFC Bank thrived, eventually surpassing ICICI Bank to become the largest private sector lender in India. Its net interest margin (NIM) remained stable in the range of 4.1-4.4 per cent.
Three closed-ended equity schemes have been launched in the past month or so and another is set to open soon for subscription.
Outflows are likely to continue, experts say, till such time as the markets see a significant correction.
Investors shunned shares of Bajaj Finance on Friday, a day after the non-banking financial company (NBFC) reported a sharp contraction in its net interest margin (NIM) for the March quarter of the financial year 2023-24 (Q4FY24). The losses accounted for a fifth of the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex's 609-point loss. Most brokerages have tamed their earnings expectations for the next couple of quarters, after the management said it expected the pressure on NIMs to continue in the near term.
From the pandemic shocks to state polls to global trends, a raft of sentiment drivers are expected to steer the Indian stock market in 2022 after a historic year of massive investor returns and milestones. The Union Budget, which will be closely watched for further reform moves, and quarterly earnings of corporates will be among the developments on investors' radar amid global central banks moving towards tighter interest regime in the wake of inflationary pressures. The year 2021 was rewarding in a big way for equity investors.
Given the prevailing uncertainties, investors must maintain a 10-15 per cent allocation to gold in 2023.
Companies featuring in the Next 500 list are mostly mid-sized and termed as the 'small wonders' by the magazine.
Motilal Oswal of Motilal Oswal Financial Services tells Puneet Wadhwa why he thinks the current market levels will sustain.
New investors should gradually build a 5 to 10 per cent allocation to gold.
'Indians are great savers, but they are lousy investors.'
Poor earnings show in the September quarter (Q2FY24), with hints of likely weakness in asset quality going ahead, forced analysts to cut earnings estimates of SBI Cards and Payment Services (SBI Card). On the bourses, shares of the State bank of India arm tumbled 7.4 per cent to Rs 732 apiece on the BSE in the intraday trade as investors factord in near-term concerns. Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, for instance, slashed SBI Card earnings by 8 per cent and 10 per cent for FY24 and FY25, respectively, as they expect the company to face pesistent magin pressure.
He said no matter how much evolution happens in technology, India could never become a fully cashless economy.
Sashidhar Jagdishan, managing director and chief executive officer of HDFC Bank, the largest private-sector lender of the country, has just completed his first term. The period October 2020-October 2023 was a roller coaster, and the second one, which started on October 27, could be more interesting as the lender absorbs the impact of the merger of HDFC, which was integrated on July 1, and moves to the next growth phase. Soon after he took over the reins from Aditya Puri on October 27, 2020, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) debarred HDFC Bank from enrolling new credit card customers and launching new products under the Digital 2.0 programme due to repeated outages on its mobile-banking and internet-banking platforms.
Omkeshwar Singh, Head, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, answers your queries.
'Valuations were depressed at 8,000 (Nifty 50 index) levels. It was a free ride to 12,000 levels.' 'What went down had to come up. Now fundamentals have to support further gains.'
Patience can be rewarding. 'Post-listing, sanity often returns to valuations of newly-listed businesses within six to nine months. Buy then.'
The most consistent wealth creators since 2008 are all consumer-facing companies, says Devangshu Datta.
'We expect the bull run to continue until economic growth continues.'
Bajaj Finance's quarterly business update, coupled with around 24 per cent fall over the past six months, has turned risk-reward favourable for investors, observe analysts. They see up to 39 per cent upside in the stock, from a one-year perspective. Global brokerage CLSA, for instance, has upgraded the stock from 'underperform' to 'outperform' with an increased one-year target price of Rs 6,600 (vs Rs 6,000 earlier) as it believes the risk-reward has turned favourable for the counter, and there is scope for expansion if growth remains robust.
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